Running into tension

Very happy to see my latest paper with Miguel Sabogal and Antonio Iovino out on arXiv, making this my first paper with my PhD student Miguel! In this paper we start from the observation, pointed out in an earlier work by Antonio and others, that ultra-slow-roll (USR) inflationary models for primordial black hole (PBH) production generically predict a negative spectral running, which is in apparent tension with ACT data. However, inflationary parameters depend quite heavily on the assumed pre-recombination model, and the Hubble tension makes this quite uncertain: we therefore asked what happens if new pre-recombination physics motivated by the Hubble tension is introduced, focusing on axion-like early dark energy. We found that this increases the spectral running, worsening the tension for USR PBH models, a feature which we argue is generic to pre-recombination new physics models introduced to solve the Hubble tension, due to the increased damping; we also took the opportunity to stress once more that inflationary parameters inferred from cosmological observations are model-dependent and should not be interpreted as model-independent measurements of the primordial power spectrum, and that inflationary model selection based on these constraints is somewhat premature until the cause of the Hubble tension is well understood. You can read the results in the preprint we just posted on arXiv: 2606.31362.